Tim O’Reilly on The War For the Web
This is a cross-post from my internal corporate blog.
The tagline at Web 2.0 Expo NY this year is “The Power of Less.” The official conference lit explains:
The Power of Less doesn’t just mean making do with fewer staff and a smaller budget. It means that constraints drive creativity, whether in business models, design paradigms, or platforms. It means the power of the small screen, the thin client, the streamlined interface. It might mean the power of small teams, or even going solo. It’s also the paradox of power: sometimes the best way to gain power is to give it away, which is why during these challenging times, we are learning that nothing builds brands like a nurtured community. It’s also the power of data: of data-centric business models, and the power of data to inform our decisions and to focus us on what matters.
Tim O’Reilly was, of course, on message with his opening keynote Tuesday in which he expanded on ideas presented in his blog post The War For the Web. It’s well worth the read, so if you haven’t already, do yourself the favor.
In the post and the talk, O’Reilly warns of a war brewing in which the interoperability of the web is at stake. He contrasts two scenarios: 1. a winner-takes-all model in which the giants — Apple, Google, Microsoft, Facebook, Newscorp… — battle to the death, and 2. a “small pieces loosely joined” system that works like the internet today. See Tim’s post for more detail; no need to recap here.
The concept of these two types of “operating systems” has been around for a while. A newer insight is Tim’s belief that Web 2.0 systems naturally tend toward monopoly. This gets interesting as these giants become increasingly capable of disrupting adjacent business areas. O’Reilly cites the example of Google’s move into the GPS business with its new turn-by-turn directions for Android phones. By giving their product away (to partners) for free, Google has disrupted the multi-billion dollar GPS industry.
O’Reilly cited two terrific references in his talk: John Borthwick’s recent blog post, Lines in the Sand, and a quote from Jeff Jarvis that has become something of a mantra at the conference this week: “Do what you do best, link to the rest.” A quick inventory of Google’s biggest successes and failures illustrates that when the company creates new value for users, they consistently win (mail, maps, docs, etc), and when they attempt to copy existing services (froogle, checkout), they consistently lose. Do what you do best, link to the rest.
O’Reilly concludes with a warning and a call to action to the tech community. While it’s possible that companies will continue to play nicely as they grow larger and more powerful, we may well be on the verge of a battle that threatens the open web platform we know and love. “If you don’t want a repeat of the PC era, place your bets now on open systems. Don’t wait till it’s too late.”
